2019 nCOV
Preliminary analysis of the 2019 nCOV outbreak in Wuhan city
New paper |
Early epidemiological analysis of the 2019-nCoV outbreak
based on a crowdsourced data
Kaiyuan Sun, Jenny Chen, Cécile Viboud. medRxiv link
based on a crowdsourced data
Kaiyuan Sun, Jenny Chen, Cécile Viboud. medRxiv link
This web page is routinely update as new information is available.
Last analysis considers the situation as of Jan.29, 2020.
Last analysis considers the situation as of Jan.29, 2020.
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Preliminary assessment of the international spreading risk associated with the 2019 nCOV outbreak in Wuhan city
Starting in December 2019, Chinese health authorities have been closely monitoring a cluster of pneumonia cases in the city of Wuhan, in Hubei Province. It has been determined that the causing agent of the viral pneumonia among affected individuals is a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV). As of January 29, 2020, a total of 6,088 cases have been detected and confirmed in Mainland China, with more than 70 additional cases detected and confirmed internationally in Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, United States, France, Australia, Nepal, Canada, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Finland, and Germany. By using the cases detected outside China we are providing estimates of size of the Wuhan outbreak as of January 29th, 2020. By using an estimate of 10 days from exposure to detection and an effective population of 20 million people in Wuhan catchment area the estimated median size of the Wuhan outbreak is 31,200 infections [95% CI: 23,400-40,400]. Technical details are in the full report available below.
Spreading risk analysis
Here we use a detailed individual based mobility model to estimate the risk of international dissemination. Our model simulates the mobility of people across more than 3,200 census areas in about 190 different countries. The mobility among subpopulations integrates the mobility by global air travel (obtained from the International Air Transport Association and Official Airline Guide databases) and the short-scale mobility between adjacent subpopulations. Based on the number of infected individuals detected in Wuhan (China) the model estimates two main quantities:
Real time situation reports on nCov within China based on digital data streams
DXY.cn, a Chinese online community for physicians and health care professionals, provides real-time situation reports of the 2019 nCov oubreak in China. The information reported includes cumulative nCov case counts, outbreak maps, and real time streaming of health authority announcements (directly or through state media) in Chinese. Link: http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia.
We closely monitor updates on DXY.cn as well as other publicly available data sources and extract key information in near real-time. A majority of the reports are being summarized in English with key epidemiological information on newly reported cases at the subnational level, as well as individual-level patient information on age, gender, travel history, symptom-onset and hospitalization dates. The individual level data are further processed into a line-list database for further quantitative analysis. We also keep track of research development on transmission estimates and the natural history of nCov disease (R0, generation time) when sufficient evidence is available. Full reports
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Interactive analysis platform
Risk analysis dashboard
Situation Report Mainland China Dashboard
CollaborationNORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY
M. Chinazzi, J. T. Davis, A. Pastore y Piontti, X. Xiong, A. Vespignani ISI FOUNDATION C. Gioannini, M. Litvinova, L. Rossi, FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER M.E. Halloran UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA I.M. Longini Jr. NIH Fogarty Institute K.Sun, C. Viboud Bruno Kessler Foundation M.Ajelli, S.Merler |
Air traffic connections from Wuhan to the rest of the world